In a previous posting, the author looked at the potentially-sinister motivations that some high-placed figures may have for leaving the EU without a deal (and no transition). This leans towards being a "conspiracy theory", and the reality is more complex, as explained in the article. However, it's also evident that one of the key reasons that a "Hard Brexit" is being seriously considered is because decision-makers in government have been persuaded that the effect will be minimal on the British economy. In other words, a "Hard Brexit" could happen simply because people in government don't understand what they're doing.
So let's have a reminder of what the situation truly is, and what would happen automatically if Britain has a "no deal" situation with the EU by 30 March 2019.
Into a hurricane without as much as an umbrella?
As mentioned in the highlighted article, Britain has been a part of the EU for forty-odd years, and in that time, almost every aspect of the British economy (and life in general) has become intertwined with the EU. In this respect, Eurosceptics' original complaint that Britain has over this time lost its sovereignty hold some water, at least at a technical level: one of the key principles is about transfers of powers. But the trade-off in "losing sovereignty" is the vast opportunities gained for wealth creation across the open borders.
The EU is a single market, but can also be called a "single economy", given how inter-connected the methods are. Companies across Europe rely on its seamless nature: products sold across the EU are made of constituents across various countries, for example. The same is true of British companies, whose companies sell products made of ingredients purchased across the various open borders. To have a "Hard Brexit" means to sever contact with that "single economy".
Leaving the EU means to null and void not only Britain's frictionless border with the EU, but also reverting to WTO conditions would automatically apply large tariffs on a whole slew of products sold to and bought from the EU. To not do this under WTO terms would result in legal consequences for Britain, making it effectively a trade law pariah to the rest of the world. These tariffs would result in large cost increases to all British companies that trade with the EU, meaning either much higher prices or these companies soon going bust. Due to the differing tariffs, some sectors would be hit much harder (and thus much more quickly) than others. And apart from that, there are the checks that the EU would automatically impose on all such products entering the EU from Britain as a "third country". This is where the talk of huge lorry parks in Dover and miles of tailbacks of trucks in Kent comes from, as all transit from outside the EU must be checked as standard, adding time and an administrative headache to the process of entering the EU, which is currently minimal. Again, these are further costs that would have to be factored in by British companies. Put in this way, it's easy to make the case that the British economy could quickly cease to function in the sense we understand today.
Apart from all this, talk of easily setting up trade with the rest of the world is also pie-in-the-sky thinking. Again, as Britain's relations with Europe are intertwined with the EU, so are many of Britain's foreign trade agreements across the world. Many of our foreign trade treaties are courtesy of our place in the EU trading bloc. Once we leave that, we also would revert to WTO rules with all those other nations in the world that had treaties with the EU (i.e. all the important ones).
There is also the problem of the "intellectual shortage" on trade. A recent story of when Liam Fox went to discuss trade with the USA highlighted how the trade negotiators that went with him had little real experience of trade negotiations. As these had all been done as part of the EU, Britain's people took a back seat, with little of a hands-on role. Again, this is due to Britain's role as part of the EU. As we had no need for a large number of trade negotiators when in the EU, it means we have very few now. So this means the government are looking to start trade talks with all the major economies in the world, with few properly-qualified trade negotiators of their own. This is like going to war without even checking that you have a functional army. This is just one example of many demonstrating how unprepared government is for the reality of a "no deal" Brexit, due to not appreciating how much British life has become reliant on our position within the EU.
The basic point is that, if we leave the EU without a deal, many of the treaties and agreements that Britain has signed with the EU and much of the rest of the world over the last forty-odd years will simply no longer apply to Britain. On a "no deal" Brexit, Britain, from a legalistic point of view, would have unilaterally decided to null and void its part in those agreements. Without anything else in their place, Britain would be starting from scratch its relations with not only the EU, but with much of the world. While it's possible that some of these could be restarted quickly, others might take much longer. And Britain doesn't even have that many qualified negotiators.
"The ends justify the means"
Apart from those who see this all as a prime opportunity to make money, there are those that see this in more esoteric terms: as a way to psychologically "reshape" the country.
There is a school of thought, in particular from some of the older generation, that life in the EU has somehow made younger Brits "soft". This thinking harks back to the "Dunkirk Spirit" and hardships endured during the Second World War. This accepts that a "no deal" Brexit would be very difficult on the country for a period of time, but this would also act as a motivation to transform for the better the nation in the long-run, by bringing people together in a better sense of community through adversity.
This is really just another angle on the same agenda as the vulture capitalists, but seen from a social, rather than economic, perspective.
This kind of nonsense thinking is dangerous to the debate over Brexit, as it confuses the motivations of those behind it. It makes Brexit seem as a method to socially transform Britain (i.e. social engineering), and that "the ends justify the means". The advocates of this kind of social aspect to Brexit seem to argue that destroying the economy will be good for society in the long run. It's hard to know what to call this line of thought rationally, except for something dangerously-akin to Fascism. It suggests a radical "purge" of society's indolent and inefficient elements, to something more streamlined.
As a reminder of why this could be called "Fascism" by another name, let's think back to the methods and justifications used by authoritarian regimes. The rationalism for many authoritarian regimes' policies was the ultimate idea that it was for the betterment of society. Yes, they said, some people would suffer, but it would work out better for everyone: no pain, no gain. In a different manner, the neo-liberals in the Conservative Party who support Brexit, also see it in esoteric terms: to transform the nation through tumultuous revolution and return to its lost roots. It will be hard on their countrymen, but they have their best interests at heart! This logic they gained from Ayn Rand and her praise of the "Social Darwinism" of the pure free market. The methods they are using to reach their goal, however, are ultimately anti-democratic: it is the subversion of the democratic process to achieve their own radical vision of society. This manipulation of the institutions of government is what makes them akin to authoritarians; their use of esoteric language in describing their aims is what makes their rhetoric so worryingly-similar to Fascism.
In the present day, no-one in politics uses the word "Fascism" to describe what they are doing, for obvious reasons; this is why the use of euphemisms and esoteric language come in to play instead. But the end result may well be the same.
This is the "descent to madness" that we are seeing at the highest levels of government. Rationalism has been replaced by esoteric thinking. When people in government can say "we've had enough with experts" the only logical destination to this is government ran on emotions and prejudice rather than judgement and facts. This is the real descent to madness.
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