The mutual agreement of the EU and the UK over the terms of the transitional phase of Britain's relationship with the EU provoked a surprisingly muted reaction from most of the Brexiteer fanatics, except for the farcical "Ealing comedy" that occurred on the Thames, symbolising everything wrong about Brexit in a microcosm.
The acquiescence of the fanatics was explained by Jacob Rees-Mogg in typically esoteric terms. Britain's status as a "vassal state" of the EU was the "purgatory" before the rise to heaven; a comparison that confirmed the quasi-religious belief (and state of mind) prevalent in this ideological sect that is in effect single-handedly deciding Britain's future, when not having to repeatedly cave in to the EU. So we go from "Ealing Comedy" to "A Comedy Of Errors". But this is what happens when Britain is ran by complete incompetents.
As the EU reminds us, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, and so the agreement on the transitional phase is provisional; provisional on Theresa May being able to offer a solution over the Irish border by June. This uncertainty is what is driving businesses to despair, for although the agreement reached last week seems to give more hope to business (and more time to prepare), it still lacks enough certainty to provide any real confidence. For argument's sake, we could say the agreement reached last week increased "certainty" over a transitional deal from, say 60% to 90% (as the remaining uncertainty over the Irish border is still very much a "killer" to the deal). But if businesses are able to relocate to the EU, where there is zero uncertainty, why would they bother to take the risk of even that 10% uncertainty by staying in Britain? What would be the point? This is something Britain's government seems to not have considered, like lots of other things about Brexit.
By June though, we should all know, one way or the other, if a transitional deal will truly happen, as the decision by the EU can be delayed no more than that.
As the EU also reminds us, Brexit is an unprecedented situation in the modern world. The EU and Britain are agreeing a treaty that, for the first time, diminishes links rather than strengthens them. In the same way, the EU's offer of the transitional agreement is equally unprecedented. To British eyes, what the EU proposes may indeed look a lot like a form of temporary "vassalage" (and legally-speaking, it is); but this was inevitable once Theresa May decided that Britain's future lay outside of the single market. As mentioned earlier this month, the EU's position was always going to be one of self-preservation once Britain's government declared its intentions to leave the single market and diverge from the EU's orbit. In this sense, Britain effectively declared itself as a large, economically-hostile neighbour to the EU. What did they think the EU was going to do in response?
The transitional deal (which Britain asked for, it should be remembered), was always going to be a unique proposal that protected the EU's stability as much Britain's. Britain would have to accept a situation of "pay no say" - vassalage - if it wanted to maintain its links with the EU after it formally left the institution (with Britain also refusing aligned membership of the EEA/EFTA).
Historically, this kind of transitional "vassalage" has few close precedents, and the only ones that come close are ones that Britain would find humiliating to be compared with. As it stands, Britain's status during the transition would legally be one of the "worst of both worlds": having EU law and its remit fully applying to a non-EU member, but without Britain having any voice in the EU; meanwhile, Britain would no longer be signed up to the dozens of trade agreements that it enjoyed for years while being in the EU, leaving its trade status with most countries outside of the EU in a state of legal limbo. To use a colourful analogy, Britain becomes the EU's "gimp".
Hurt pride
While historical comparisons are not always fully applicable, the spirit of the comparison may well ring true for critics of Britain's emasculated position. The status of an emasculated power that was in many ways "managed" from outside was also the fate that befell Weimar Germany in the years immediately following World War One, and more recently Russia in the years immediately following the collapse of Communism. In both cases, the fate of their economies was tied to decisions made outside the country, due to either (in Germany's case) massive debts burdened on them by the victorious allies, or (in Russia's case) a collapse in the real value of the economy's assets leading to Western opportunism/exploitation.
I'm not suggesting that the EU is in the business of Britain's "exploitation"; as said earlier, its stance comes from self-preservation due to the British government's own self-defeating strategy. My wider point is what effect "vassalage" could have on British "pride" and its effect on British politics in particular. Hint: not a good one.
As we know from the examples of Germany and Russia, their experiences of economic emasculation led to political extremism. The fact that Jacob Rees-Mogg is so accepting of the transitional deal makes me wonder if people like him are playing "the long game" (and have been for quite some time). Knowing how humiliating the terms of the transition would be for Britain, his group in parliament (the ERG) quietly allow Theresa May and her close associates to dig their own political graves through their supine "surrender" to Brussels (in a modern-day "Versailles" treaty), meanwhile quietly waiting for the tide to turn against them and in their favour. The mood in Britain is already febrile from the emotive rhetoric used by the Brexiteers. It wouldn't be surprising if some of them would use Britain's uniquely-emasculated status during the transition (a "humiliation") for their own ends, using the selfsame emotive rhetoric as before to better bring about a Hard Brexit afterwards, free from Europe's "dastardly" hands. As said before, the situation is unprecedented in modern British history, so equally it makes sense that some might seek to exploit that unique position for their ends. Evoking the myths of British history and identity, it wouldn't be difficult to foresee a strong reaction to modern Britain's enfeebled status, manipulated by those who seek to benefit from it.
This narrative sees the Brexiteers, far from their agenda turned over by the EU in the Brexit negotiations, see the negotiations as actually a "win-win", so long as Theresa May is kept to her word of Britain leaving the single market. If Britain leaves with no deal by June, they win next year. If Britain gets a transitional deal, they could use the interim "humiliation" for their own political ends - blaming the EU (and, if necessary, the "collaborationists" in the government) - to ensure their extremist agenda is realised at the start of 2021.
In this sense, the transition would become a tool for destroying Britain's pride - a kind of purge of its collective psyche - with the EU both as the instrument and the scapegoat. This "psychological purge" of British identity thus provides a kind of "shock therapy" that would numb Britain to the vision that the "Brextremists" wished to implement - the logical conclusion of their "austerity agenda", a form of social engineering. They could then manipulate the situation to create support for their "bargain basement" vision for post-Brexit Britain. It would hardly be the first time that right-wing Tories have used a strategy that both uses a third party for their own ends, and also becomes their scapegoat.
Put in these terms, Britain's future seems to be in the Brexiteers' hands, come what may. Only time will tell if it goes so far as becoming a contemporary version of "Fascism with a British face".
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