It could be argued that the seeds of Brexit go back five hundred years.
British Euroscepticism is an old creed which has usually been a mask for English Nationalism, of one sort or another. But at its heart is a paranoia against Europe, and a particular conspiracy theory that centres on an all-powerful, trans-national ("papist") elite.
The paranoiac, Eurosceptic conspiracy theorists of today (i.e. the zealot "Brexiteers") seem to echo with the same kind of dark delusions as those of 16th and 17th century England. The same could well be said of the ancient roots of modern Anti-Semitism, but that's another story.
The Reformation of Martin Luther five hundred years ago was in many ways about "taking back control" from a over-mighty, corrupt and centralizing elite, based in Rome. This movement also crossed the channel to England. It was the personal whims of Henry VIII rather than Martin Luther that eventually brought about the "English Reformation", and he came to see the power of the papacy in England as a direct threat to his own. One direct result of this was the dissolution of the monasteries, an act of barbarous, monarchical thievery masked behind faith. The febrile atmosphere in the country led to Protestant paranoia against Rome and its ally, Hapsburg Spain, and by the reign of Elizabeth, war.
By the time the Stuart kings came to the throne in the first half of the 17th century, Protestant paranoia had to be tamed. "Splendid Isolation" was also self-destructive. This resulted in a more nuanced and pragmatic approach by the Stuarts towards Catholic Spain and the "Papist" threat; it was a period of English "detente" towards Europe, where relations were improved and connections made. This went so far as leaving some English Protestants into thinking that James, and Charles in particular, were Papists in all but name. Their autocratic actions also fed the view that the Stuart kings were behaving far more like the Papist autocrats on the Continent than the more consensual rulers they had been led to believe in (regardless of the past reality of Henry VIII's reign).
It was this atmosphere of Protestant paranoia over a "Papist", foreign-minded king that led to the English Civil War. The king's forces, the Cavaliers, were seen as foppish, condescending autocrats, while parliament's forces, the Roundheads, were portrayed as sober-minded reformers. The resulting "Commonwealth" of the victorious Roundheads, however, rapidly turned into a virtual Puritan revolution. While the purpose of the Civil war was the restoration of parliament, it actually turned into the autocracy of Oliver Cromwell and his fellow Puritan Protestants where parliament was sidelined; a hard-line faction of parliament had taken control of the country and hijacked its fate. In the end, this situation couldn't last, and we had the Restoration not long after Cromwell's death.
The "new Puritanism"?
We seem to be repeating a variation on the same story centuries later.
Four hundred years ago, while Protestants in England were becoming fed up with James' indulgence of Hapsburg Spain, the seeds were also sown for the Thirty Years' War. This saw Hapsburg (and fellow-Papist) Austria fight against Protestants across the Holy Roman Empire. This Protestant "insurgency" against a centralizing autocracy devastated the heart of Europe.
Ironically, the Hapsburgs also had a part to play in Europe's coming-together after the Second World War. The Treaty Of Westphalia ended the Thirty Years' War and created a peace in Europe that lasted for generations; The Treaty of Rome created the framework for European peace and co-operation after the Second World war.
The Eurosceptics of today wouldn't have missed the historical irony (or implicit symbolism) of the framework for a centralised, European administration being signed in Rome. For the paranoid conspiracy theorists, the whole thing reeked of centuries-old autocratic "Papism", re-imagined in a modern setting. For the paranoid conspiracy theorists, Hapsburg hands even seemed be on the choice of Brussels (and Strasbourg) as its administrative centres; both cities that once were at the heart of "Papist" Austrian and Spanish Hapsburg lands. Belgium is still staunchly Catholic. Eurosceptics' paranoia that the European Union was simply a reconstituted Holy Roman Empire assailed against "democratizing" Protestantism would have been undimmed.
My point is not to argue if these ideas are based in fact (and regardless of any wider symbolism, European integration is a well-established fact); it is that these ideas have been used by paranoid Eurosceptics for the purpose of their own agenda. That agenda seems to be a form of economic and ideological "Puritanism": a kind of 21st century "Commonwealth", with all the potential upheaval that entails.
As with Protestants' suspicion of the allegiance of the Stuart kings of four hundred years ago, Eurosceptics of today would have had their paranoia fueled by the administrations of Blair and Cameron, who were both innately Euro-phile (and ironically, like James and Charles Stuart, both of Scottish stock). Like how Protestants of four hundred years ago would have yearned back to the times of the staunch Protestantism of Elizabeth, today's Eurosceptics yearn back to the certainties of the Thatcher era; another strong woman, they would say, who did not shy from battling Europe.
Like King James, Blair's fate seems to have been to repair relations with Europe, strained after years of quasi-isolation. He otherwise left a long legacy of mixed fortunes during his time in power. James's successor, Charles, took James' autocratic tendency even further, but with far less tact.
Cameron's political fate as the "heir to Blair", in a manner of speaking, also seemed to have gone the way of Charles'. Some of the historical parallels are striking. Foppish and condescending like Charles, Cameron's career at the top was a series of misjudgments. It was trouble with Scotland that started Charles' troubles with parliament in England; after recklessly thinking he had solved the trouble north of the border, Charles thought his troubles with parliament would as easily be solved. They were not, and neither were his troubles with Scotland. The same could be said of Cameron, when his "victory" over the Scottish referendum led him to think he could as easily solve the problem his own faction had with Europe. By acting in a condescending way towards his enemies and behaving like a reckless autocrat, Cameron's fate came to a messy political end.
After being defeated by the "Puritanical" Eurosceptic faction, Cameron was succeeded by Theresa May. The daughter of a vicar, she seemed to match the Brexit Puritans' demeanor for a mean-spirited, petty-minded form of government. In allowing a hostile political environment for the Eurosceptics' paranoia to grow unchecked, she seems to be continuing this inadvertent "reprise" of the mid-17th century narrative: as a female Cromwell, symbolic head of the Puritan "Brexit" revolution that sought to seek out and destroy the remaining vestiges of "Papist" Pro-Europeanism. For these modern Puritans, "Hard Brexit" is their version of the rapture, with their foreign-minded "Papist" enemies rightly deserving of their fate in the rhetorical flames.
The "Brexiteers" of today share the same paranoia towards the continent that the Protestant Puritans had four hundred years ago. The themes are the same, even if the European institutions they attack are different; once it was Rome that was the enemy, while now it is Brussels. As mentioned earlier, the sharper-eyed (and more conspiratorial) Eurosceptics may point to the symbolic "Papist connection" between Brussels and Rome.
Four hundred years ago, the Puritans' allies in Europe were to be found in the Lutheran states of Northern Europe, as they allied against Rome and its Hapsburg allies in Spain and Austria. Today, the "Brexiteers" find their allies in the Populist anti-European movements. These are ideological descendants to the anti-clerical Lutherans that fought against a centralizing Rome, except now their "centralizing" enemies are based in Brussels, with the support of Berlin and Paris.
This is the narrative that has overtaken Britain's politics. These are the "culture wars" that have been fought in the minds of Britain's population, on behalf of a "Puritan" Brexit agenda. The new "English Civil War" has already been fought in the form of the EU referendum: to continue the analogy, the foppish Pro-European "Cavaliers" lost, and the stern-minded Eurosceptic "Roundheads" won.
For the Brexit "Puritans", a new "Commonwealth" beckons; though what it means for everyone else, only time will tell.
Tuesday, October 31, 2017
Tuesday, October 24, 2017
Brexit: The Ultimate Blunder? How this is Theresa May's "Poll Tax"
The excellent book "The Blunders Of Our Governments" goes into great depth at how governments get things wrong, often with catastrophic results. The scale of the catastrophe just depends on the scale of the blunder.
One of the biggest (and most famous) "blunders" by any UK government in modern times was the Poll Tax. Looking at the sheer incompetence of how the government is managing its Brexit strategy, it's hard not to to draw parallels with how the Thatcher government blundered into a crisis entirely of its own making, and the current one. Some of the time scale over the issues - how it was a "slow burner" that gradually gained more and more inescapable momentum - also matches. To see how well the events of thirty years ago and today mirror each other, we'll have a look at the basics of what went wrong with the Poll Tax.
The idea of the Poll tax had its formation in the 1970s, thanks to think tanks that looked at "outside-of-the-box" solutions (mirroring what we see today with the government's Brexit strategy). The idea was one of a number of options at reforming "the rates", where council tax was paid only by those who owned property in the area. By early 1985, after the government had began its privatisation agenda, it looked in more detail at reforming local government and the system of "the rates", to make it equitable, so that everyone paid what was fair. In a famous meeting at Chequers, the Poll Tax was one of a few options put to the government, but by a series of interactions, some high-placed people in government saw the Poll Tax as the only true way to fully reform the system; all the other options seemed either unfair or meaningless half-measures. After a period of time, further discussions and discreet lobbying (also - looking at the practicality of the idea - from some in the civil service), it was in the end agreed that the only way for it to work was for a "big bang" implementation. In other words, having some kind of "transitional" arrangement was pointless and administratively confusing; much better to go straight from one system to the next, and iron out any potential glitches along the way. Those in government against all this (and there were a number of them) were silenced by the momentum that gradually built in favour of this radical reform; they were also quick to make their opposition well-known to others in government, to avoid any guilt by association.
Thus the Poll Tax was introduced through a combination of groupthink in government, as well as cultural disconnect. The problems (and the riots) are well-known. It now clear that the selfsame mistakes have took place with Brexit thirty years later, but now on a scale (and potential impact) many times greater.
Like with the Poll Tax, Brexit was a "slow-burner". Initially it was an issue with a small faction of the Conservative Party, some media hacks, editors and the like. But all these people had influence (and with that, gravitas) as well as money to back them up. Like with the Poll Tax, Brexit became an issue thanks to political events: where the Poll Tax came to be seen by Thatcher as a way to reform troublesome local councils, Brexit (or, at least, the initial offer of a referendum) came to be seen as way by Cameron to silence the hard-right in the party that were more ideological kin to UKIP. It took around five years (from the Chequers meeting in 1985 to it being implemented in 1990) for the Poll Tax to fully burst into life, warts and all. Brexit - if we call March 2019 its "implementation" - will have come to exist in the public sphere for a similar period, when the EU referendum was first promised by Cameron in early 2013. Like how the Poll Tax was ambushed on the rest of government, who were then hostages to its fate, Brexit made the same of Cameron, when the referendum made Brexit a reality. His successor, Theresa May, was then even more beholden to the hard-right ideologues in the party, even though she was not a fervent believer in the idea herself. As mentioned earlier with the Poll Tax, it was the desire for a "big bang", as well as the desire to make a radical reform, that led to the chaos of its implementation; the desire among some in government for a "Hard Brexit" without a transitional arrangement follows the same blinkered thinking that dismisses compromises such as staying in the EEA or EFTA as a "betrayal" of the cause. This stubbornness leaves the potential for heaven knows what kind of chaos to the UK economy come March 2019.
Once May succeeded Cameron as Prime Minister, Brexit took on a whole life of its own, like the Poll Tax did with the Thatcher government thirty years ago. Those who opposed the Poll Tax were seen as "wets" or lacking the boldness necessary for real reform; those now opposed to "Hard Brexit" are these days seen as "Remoaners" or saboteurs who are trying to undermine the government. This is the result of groupthink and cultural disconnect, as well as a deferential respect for those in authority, assuming that they must know what they are talking about . If anything, these issues are far worse this time around, given how high the stakes are. With the Poll Tax, those affected could (and many did) ignore their threatening letters from councils, which resulted in an eventual (partial) climb-down from the government; by contrast, the economy of the entire country is at stake thanks to the current "blunder", and the only way to escape it would be to flee abroad.
The Thatcher government had almost a "revolutionary" aura about it at times. Cameron's and May's government have been in some ways even more radical, and not in a good way. The desire for "reform" among the hard-right in government led to various ministers leading their departments as their own pet project. In a sense, Cameron's relaxed attitude to ministers pursuing their own agendas also led to scandal and scandal: the direct result of having an "experimental" government agenda.
This is what marks out the Conservative government of today as being different from earlier incarnations: whereas earlier governments took risks from time to time, the current government seem to actively encourage them. If you are not a risk-taker, it seems, then you lack the drive and radicalism necessary for the government's wider agenda. This kind of callous recklessness and shallow disregard for the wider consequences is unprecedented in any British government of modern times: it's almost as if they want things to fail. While some of it is down to the glaring incompetence of ministers, some of it can only be driven by the agenda of an amoral, manipulative few.
Thatcher's Poll Tax ultimately was a sign of the government losing the plot; it was only a change of Prime Minister, and a little luck, that allowed the Conservatives to stay in power for seven more years from its initial implementation disaster. A "Hard Brexit" would be a disaster on a scale a thousand times more disruptive; who knows what the political ramifications of that would be?
One of the biggest (and most famous) "blunders" by any UK government in modern times was the Poll Tax. Looking at the sheer incompetence of how the government is managing its Brexit strategy, it's hard not to to draw parallels with how the Thatcher government blundered into a crisis entirely of its own making, and the current one. Some of the time scale over the issues - how it was a "slow burner" that gradually gained more and more inescapable momentum - also matches. To see how well the events of thirty years ago and today mirror each other, we'll have a look at the basics of what went wrong with the Poll Tax.
The idea of the Poll tax had its formation in the 1970s, thanks to think tanks that looked at "outside-of-the-box" solutions (mirroring what we see today with the government's Brexit strategy). The idea was one of a number of options at reforming "the rates", where council tax was paid only by those who owned property in the area. By early 1985, after the government had began its privatisation agenda, it looked in more detail at reforming local government and the system of "the rates", to make it equitable, so that everyone paid what was fair. In a famous meeting at Chequers, the Poll Tax was one of a few options put to the government, but by a series of interactions, some high-placed people in government saw the Poll Tax as the only true way to fully reform the system; all the other options seemed either unfair or meaningless half-measures. After a period of time, further discussions and discreet lobbying (also - looking at the practicality of the idea - from some in the civil service), it was in the end agreed that the only way for it to work was for a "big bang" implementation. In other words, having some kind of "transitional" arrangement was pointless and administratively confusing; much better to go straight from one system to the next, and iron out any potential glitches along the way. Those in government against all this (and there were a number of them) were silenced by the momentum that gradually built in favour of this radical reform; they were also quick to make their opposition well-known to others in government, to avoid any guilt by association.
Thus the Poll Tax was introduced through a combination of groupthink in government, as well as cultural disconnect. The problems (and the riots) are well-known. It now clear that the selfsame mistakes have took place with Brexit thirty years later, but now on a scale (and potential impact) many times greater.
Like with the Poll Tax, Brexit was a "slow-burner". Initially it was an issue with a small faction of the Conservative Party, some media hacks, editors and the like. But all these people had influence (and with that, gravitas) as well as money to back them up. Like with the Poll Tax, Brexit became an issue thanks to political events: where the Poll Tax came to be seen by Thatcher as a way to reform troublesome local councils, Brexit (or, at least, the initial offer of a referendum) came to be seen as way by Cameron to silence the hard-right in the party that were more ideological kin to UKIP. It took around five years (from the Chequers meeting in 1985 to it being implemented in 1990) for the Poll Tax to fully burst into life, warts and all. Brexit - if we call March 2019 its "implementation" - will have come to exist in the public sphere for a similar period, when the EU referendum was first promised by Cameron in early 2013. Like how the Poll Tax was ambushed on the rest of government, who were then hostages to its fate, Brexit made the same of Cameron, when the referendum made Brexit a reality. His successor, Theresa May, was then even more beholden to the hard-right ideologues in the party, even though she was not a fervent believer in the idea herself. As mentioned earlier with the Poll Tax, it was the desire for a "big bang", as well as the desire to make a radical reform, that led to the chaos of its implementation; the desire among some in government for a "Hard Brexit" without a transitional arrangement follows the same blinkered thinking that dismisses compromises such as staying in the EEA or EFTA as a "betrayal" of the cause. This stubbornness leaves the potential for heaven knows what kind of chaos to the UK economy come March 2019.
Once May succeeded Cameron as Prime Minister, Brexit took on a whole life of its own, like the Poll Tax did with the Thatcher government thirty years ago. Those who opposed the Poll Tax were seen as "wets" or lacking the boldness necessary for real reform; those now opposed to "Hard Brexit" are these days seen as "Remoaners" or saboteurs who are trying to undermine the government. This is the result of groupthink and cultural disconnect, as well as a deferential respect for those in authority, assuming that they must know what they are talking about . If anything, these issues are far worse this time around, given how high the stakes are. With the Poll Tax, those affected could (and many did) ignore their threatening letters from councils, which resulted in an eventual (partial) climb-down from the government; by contrast, the economy of the entire country is at stake thanks to the current "blunder", and the only way to escape it would be to flee abroad.
The Thatcher government had almost a "revolutionary" aura about it at times. Cameron's and May's government have been in some ways even more radical, and not in a good way. The desire for "reform" among the hard-right in government led to various ministers leading their departments as their own pet project. In a sense, Cameron's relaxed attitude to ministers pursuing their own agendas also led to scandal and scandal: the direct result of having an "experimental" government agenda.
This is what marks out the Conservative government of today as being different from earlier incarnations: whereas earlier governments took risks from time to time, the current government seem to actively encourage them. If you are not a risk-taker, it seems, then you lack the drive and radicalism necessary for the government's wider agenda. This kind of callous recklessness and shallow disregard for the wider consequences is unprecedented in any British government of modern times: it's almost as if they want things to fail. While some of it is down to the glaring incompetence of ministers, some of it can only be driven by the agenda of an amoral, manipulative few.
Thatcher's Poll Tax ultimately was a sign of the government losing the plot; it was only a change of Prime Minister, and a little luck, that allowed the Conservatives to stay in power for seven more years from its initial implementation disaster. A "Hard Brexit" would be a disaster on a scale a thousand times more disruptive; who knows what the political ramifications of that would be?
Thursday, October 19, 2017
Brexit: the result of accumulated incompetence? Parallels with "Atlas Shrugged"
Following the government's strategy and "progress" with the Brexit negotiations, I was reminded of the plot to Ayn Rand's "Atlas Shrugged" (the author wrote a series of articles on this novel's symbolism).
Ayn Rand's original working title to this mammoth novel was "The Strike". The premise behind the story being: what would happen if all the smartest people refused to work? So the story follows as, one by one, various stalwarts of industry and other brains of American society begin to disappear, as the government of the day slowly takes greater and greater control of the economy. The process becomes self-reinforcing as the government takes up more of the slack left behind as more and more of the "best and brightest" disappear from public life. In the end, left with an over-bearing government led by a mass of collective incompetence, accidents become commonplace as the country literally begins to fall apart. The "best and brightest" finally reappear to save the nation from itself when the government loses control of the situation completely. The reader is left with the implication that these "best and brightest" will then restore the country under a new system where the government is entirely absent from any role in the economy and the public sphere.
The story reads as an indictment on "government" as a whole, as an autocratic system which feeds incompetence and inefficiency; the opposite to how the private sector is meant to be ran. While I'm no fan of Ayn Rand, following the government's handling of Brexit, it's hard not to draw (ironic) parallels with their rank incompetence and descent into chaos, and that of the government portrayed in "Atlas Shrugged". In the same way as the "best and brightest" fled from their posts in light of the fictitious government's actions, the same seems to be true of various parts of industry in the UK during the Brexit process.
Most of industry warned during the referendum campaign that to leave the EU would be bad for the British economy; now that the government seems to be lurching towards leaving the EU with no deal at all, some giants of the economy are reminding the government in stark terms of their own economic interests. If the government pursues this course to leave with no deal in March 2019, they will be forced to make their own "contingency plans": put simply, they will up sticks and leave the sinking ship as quickly as possible. While the UK will leave the EU in March 2019, big business - and the financial sector in particular - need clarity far sooner: no later than the end of this year, to give them time to make adequate preparations. Similarly, Britain's airline industry needs to know what the "deal" will be no later than March 2018, to make suitable preparations. The government's incompetence and incoherence has been given very short shrift, and will result in real consequences much more quickly than they think. The initial effects of Brexit on the economy may be only a few months away; a harbinger of what is to come.
Since the referendum, it also feels as though all those who supported "Remain" (i.e. much of the intelligentsia) have been quelled into silence by the febrile and menacing feel in the public sphere; like how many "captains of industry" are making contingency plans to flee with their assets, large parts of the intelligentsia have seem to have gone AWOL. It's no coincidence that some of those have also applied for (Irish) EU passports, perhaps to better enable their own flight after Brexit. While the intelligentsia have absented themselves from the discourse (perhaps seeing how impossible it is to reason with incompetents), the country descends into madness. It seems as though industry and the intelligentsia are getting their excuses in early, as if to say "we warned you; you didn't listen. It's not our fault".
The irony here is how the government's agenda is being guided by those who are huge supporters of Ayn Rand's ideology; it is almost as if they want the government to be led by incompetents (as in the plot of "Atlas Shrugged") - to bring about the economy's collapse, and allow them to take over.
A failure of government
The EU can see how badly the country is being ran, and its strategy now with Theresa May seems almost one of pity. Unfortunately this seems as doomed to fail as any other strategy, for as much as May and her government completely misunderstand how the EU works, the EU seems to equally misunderstand how the Conservative Party works. The EU tries to "make nice" with May over the possibility of a deal (by - wrongly - thinking that this positive mood music will encourage May into making the necessary concessions); meanwhile, May is encouraged to see any sign of "flexibility" on the EU's part as a sign that they are willing to make concessions, so sees no need to give ground. So both sides seem to be feeding each other with false hopes of a deal, to encourage the other to make the kind of concessions which may well be politically impossible. Both sides are in a bind - a kind of "Gordian Knot" of epic proportions.
May may well go down as one of the worst Prime Ministers the country has ever known, certainly in modern times. Her personal characteristics seem to work against the process gaining any momentum at home. To begin with, she has autocratic tendencies, to the extent that any serious debate over the issues is knocked down. This has led to the extraordinary situation where there has been - now sixteen months on from the referendum, and nearly seven months on from invoking article 50 - still no proper debate in government about what its actual Brexit aims are. All that has been said so far is woolly rhetoric to paper over the vast differences in government. The EU doesn't know what the UK government wants because the UK government itself doesn't know what it wants. It is truly astonishing that May could trigger article 50 for the start of negotiations without her government having a clue what its final position was.
This is partly due to the weakness of May's position as well; even when her government had a majority, she was loathe to start a proper debate on Brexit that would lead to open differences in government. The result is that the open differences have surfaced anyway, because she has done nothing to diminish them. Now her government doesn't even have a majority, this has made those differences even more apparent, with the loudest voices from the "Hard Brexiteers" carrying the most sway. In the same way that the intelligentsia have largely gone AWOL in the country at large, in the Conservative Party, the most rational voices have been silenced by the headbangers. And while this goes on, Theresa May sits in Downing Street and does nothing, as she is too weak to act: a hostage to fortune.
It is May's position as a mere "caretaker" presiding over this chaos that fatally diminishes the prestige of the role of Prime Minister of the UK.
This all feels like the inevitable result of the gradual degradation of the quality of political discourse in Britain.
There was a time when politics was inhabited by people of intellect, with ideas and (some) moral standing. John Major may not have been an intellectual giant, but he at least seemed to possess an aura of integrity. Tony Blair may have had an ambiguous moral compass (e.g. Iraq), but at least he was smart, and improved the state of the nation overall. (Doctor) Gordon Brown may have had his flaws, but when the financial crisis happened, he did the right thing at the right time, by saving the economy from imminent implosion.
David Cameron was a sign of the things to come. He treated politics as a game, even to the point of playing with his country's own future. He thought he was smart, but he was merely "lucky"; until his luck ran out. He filled his cabinet with similar chancers like George Osborne, and the rest with people whose loyalty or affiliations were more important than their rank incompetence. Theresa May was so long-standing in her position as Home Secretary for the same reason.
It is this gradual but self-evident decline in the quality of Britain's politics that led to Brexit in the first place: it's what happens when the establishment is left to rule though passive compliance. UKIP's incoherent ideology was allowed to take over the political discourse; the result now is that the government has copied its core agenda almost in its entirety and it's treating our democratic institutions as a complete joke. The government now thinks that democracy is a system where you can ignore the opinions of the people you don't agree with; they think the judgments of experts can be ignored if they disagree with their own prejudices.
If you're not worried, you're not paying attention.
Ayn Rand's original working title to this mammoth novel was "The Strike". The premise behind the story being: what would happen if all the smartest people refused to work? So the story follows as, one by one, various stalwarts of industry and other brains of American society begin to disappear, as the government of the day slowly takes greater and greater control of the economy. The process becomes self-reinforcing as the government takes up more of the slack left behind as more and more of the "best and brightest" disappear from public life. In the end, left with an over-bearing government led by a mass of collective incompetence, accidents become commonplace as the country literally begins to fall apart. The "best and brightest" finally reappear to save the nation from itself when the government loses control of the situation completely. The reader is left with the implication that these "best and brightest" will then restore the country under a new system where the government is entirely absent from any role in the economy and the public sphere.
The story reads as an indictment on "government" as a whole, as an autocratic system which feeds incompetence and inefficiency; the opposite to how the private sector is meant to be ran. While I'm no fan of Ayn Rand, following the government's handling of Brexit, it's hard not to draw (ironic) parallels with their rank incompetence and descent into chaos, and that of the government portrayed in "Atlas Shrugged". In the same way as the "best and brightest" fled from their posts in light of the fictitious government's actions, the same seems to be true of various parts of industry in the UK during the Brexit process.
Most of industry warned during the referendum campaign that to leave the EU would be bad for the British economy; now that the government seems to be lurching towards leaving the EU with no deal at all, some giants of the economy are reminding the government in stark terms of their own economic interests. If the government pursues this course to leave with no deal in March 2019, they will be forced to make their own "contingency plans": put simply, they will up sticks and leave the sinking ship as quickly as possible. While the UK will leave the EU in March 2019, big business - and the financial sector in particular - need clarity far sooner: no later than the end of this year, to give them time to make adequate preparations. Similarly, Britain's airline industry needs to know what the "deal" will be no later than March 2018, to make suitable preparations. The government's incompetence and incoherence has been given very short shrift, and will result in real consequences much more quickly than they think. The initial effects of Brexit on the economy may be only a few months away; a harbinger of what is to come.
Since the referendum, it also feels as though all those who supported "Remain" (i.e. much of the intelligentsia) have been quelled into silence by the febrile and menacing feel in the public sphere; like how many "captains of industry" are making contingency plans to flee with their assets, large parts of the intelligentsia have seem to have gone AWOL. It's no coincidence that some of those have also applied for (Irish) EU passports, perhaps to better enable their own flight after Brexit. While the intelligentsia have absented themselves from the discourse (perhaps seeing how impossible it is to reason with incompetents), the country descends into madness. It seems as though industry and the intelligentsia are getting their excuses in early, as if to say "we warned you; you didn't listen. It's not our fault".
The irony here is how the government's agenda is being guided by those who are huge supporters of Ayn Rand's ideology; it is almost as if they want the government to be led by incompetents (as in the plot of "Atlas Shrugged") - to bring about the economy's collapse, and allow them to take over.
A failure of government
The EU can see how badly the country is being ran, and its strategy now with Theresa May seems almost one of pity. Unfortunately this seems as doomed to fail as any other strategy, for as much as May and her government completely misunderstand how the EU works, the EU seems to equally misunderstand how the Conservative Party works. The EU tries to "make nice" with May over the possibility of a deal (by - wrongly - thinking that this positive mood music will encourage May into making the necessary concessions); meanwhile, May is encouraged to see any sign of "flexibility" on the EU's part as a sign that they are willing to make concessions, so sees no need to give ground. So both sides seem to be feeding each other with false hopes of a deal, to encourage the other to make the kind of concessions which may well be politically impossible. Both sides are in a bind - a kind of "Gordian Knot" of epic proportions.
May may well go down as one of the worst Prime Ministers the country has ever known, certainly in modern times. Her personal characteristics seem to work against the process gaining any momentum at home. To begin with, she has autocratic tendencies, to the extent that any serious debate over the issues is knocked down. This has led to the extraordinary situation where there has been - now sixteen months on from the referendum, and nearly seven months on from invoking article 50 - still no proper debate in government about what its actual Brexit aims are. All that has been said so far is woolly rhetoric to paper over the vast differences in government. The EU doesn't know what the UK government wants because the UK government itself doesn't know what it wants. It is truly astonishing that May could trigger article 50 for the start of negotiations without her government having a clue what its final position was.
This is partly due to the weakness of May's position as well; even when her government had a majority, she was loathe to start a proper debate on Brexit that would lead to open differences in government. The result is that the open differences have surfaced anyway, because she has done nothing to diminish them. Now her government doesn't even have a majority, this has made those differences even more apparent, with the loudest voices from the "Hard Brexiteers" carrying the most sway. In the same way that the intelligentsia have largely gone AWOL in the country at large, in the Conservative Party, the most rational voices have been silenced by the headbangers. And while this goes on, Theresa May sits in Downing Street and does nothing, as she is too weak to act: a hostage to fortune.
It is May's position as a mere "caretaker" presiding over this chaos that fatally diminishes the prestige of the role of Prime Minister of the UK.
This all feels like the inevitable result of the gradual degradation of the quality of political discourse in Britain.
There was a time when politics was inhabited by people of intellect, with ideas and (some) moral standing. John Major may not have been an intellectual giant, but he at least seemed to possess an aura of integrity. Tony Blair may have had an ambiguous moral compass (e.g. Iraq), but at least he was smart, and improved the state of the nation overall. (Doctor) Gordon Brown may have had his flaws, but when the financial crisis happened, he did the right thing at the right time, by saving the economy from imminent implosion.
David Cameron was a sign of the things to come. He treated politics as a game, even to the point of playing with his country's own future. He thought he was smart, but he was merely "lucky"; until his luck ran out. He filled his cabinet with similar chancers like George Osborne, and the rest with people whose loyalty or affiliations were more important than their rank incompetence. Theresa May was so long-standing in her position as Home Secretary for the same reason.
It is this gradual but self-evident decline in the quality of Britain's politics that led to Brexit in the first place: it's what happens when the establishment is left to rule though passive compliance. UKIP's incoherent ideology was allowed to take over the political discourse; the result now is that the government has copied its core agenda almost in its entirety and it's treating our democratic institutions as a complete joke. The government now thinks that democracy is a system where you can ignore the opinions of the people you don't agree with; they think the judgments of experts can be ignored if they disagree with their own prejudices.
If you're not worried, you're not paying attention.
Monday, October 16, 2017
"Hard Brexit": why a "no deal" scenario is a descent to madness
In a previous posting, the author looked at the potentially-sinister motivations that some high-placed figures may have for leaving the EU without a deal (and no transition). This leans towards being a "conspiracy theory", and the reality is more complex, as explained in the article. However, it's also evident that one of the key reasons that a "Hard Brexit" is being seriously considered is because decision-makers in government have been persuaded that the effect will be minimal on the British economy. In other words, a "Hard Brexit" could happen simply because people in government don't understand what they're doing.
So let's have a reminder of what the situation truly is, and what would happen automatically if Britain has a "no deal" situation with the EU by 30 March 2019.
Into a hurricane without as much as an umbrella?
As mentioned in the highlighted article, Britain has been a part of the EU for forty-odd years, and in that time, almost every aspect of the British economy (and life in general) has become intertwined with the EU. In this respect, Eurosceptics' original complaint that Britain has over this time lost its sovereignty hold some water, at least at a technical level: one of the key principles is about transfers of powers. But the trade-off in "losing sovereignty" is the vast opportunities gained for wealth creation across the open borders.
The EU is a single market, but can also be called a "single economy", given how inter-connected the methods are. Companies across Europe rely on its seamless nature: products sold across the EU are made of constituents across various countries, for example. The same is true of British companies, whose companies sell products made of ingredients purchased across the various open borders. To have a "Hard Brexit" means to sever contact with that "single economy".
Leaving the EU means to null and void not only Britain's frictionless border with the EU, but also reverting to WTO conditions would automatically apply large tariffs on a whole slew of products sold to and bought from the EU. To not do this under WTO terms would result in legal consequences for Britain, making it effectively a trade law pariah to the rest of the world. These tariffs would result in large cost increases to all British companies that trade with the EU, meaning either much higher prices or these companies soon going bust. Due to the differing tariffs, some sectors would be hit much harder (and thus much more quickly) than others. And apart from that, there are the checks that the EU would automatically impose on all such products entering the EU from Britain as a "third country". This is where the talk of huge lorry parks in Dover and miles of tailbacks of trucks in Kent comes from, as all transit from outside the EU must be checked as standard, adding time and an administrative headache to the process of entering the EU, which is currently minimal. Again, these are further costs that would have to be factored in by British companies. Put in this way, it's easy to make the case that the British economy could quickly cease to function in the sense we understand today.
Apart from all this, talk of easily setting up trade with the rest of the world is also pie-in-the-sky thinking. Again, as Britain's relations with Europe are intertwined with the EU, so are many of Britain's foreign trade agreements across the world. Many of our foreign trade treaties are courtesy of our place in the EU trading bloc. Once we leave that, we also would revert to WTO rules with all those other nations in the world that had treaties with the EU (i.e. all the important ones).
There is also the problem of the "intellectual shortage" on trade. A recent story of when Liam Fox went to discuss trade with the USA highlighted how the trade negotiators that went with him had little real experience of trade negotiations. As these had all been done as part of the EU, Britain's people took a back seat, with little of a hands-on role. Again, this is due to Britain's role as part of the EU. As we had no need for a large number of trade negotiators when in the EU, it means we have very few now. So this means the government are looking to start trade talks with all the major economies in the world, with few properly-qualified trade negotiators of their own. This is like going to war without even checking that you have a functional army. This is just one example of many demonstrating how unprepared government is for the reality of a "no deal" Brexit, due to not appreciating how much British life has become reliant on our position within the EU.
The basic point is that, if we leave the EU without a deal, many of the treaties and agreements that Britain has signed with the EU and much of the rest of the world over the last forty-odd years will simply no longer apply to Britain. On a "no deal" Brexit, Britain, from a legalistic point of view, would have unilaterally decided to null and void its part in those agreements. Without anything else in their place, Britain would be starting from scratch its relations with not only the EU, but with much of the world. While it's possible that some of these could be restarted quickly, others might take much longer. And Britain doesn't even have that many qualified negotiators.
"The ends justify the means"
Apart from those who see this all as a prime opportunity to make money, there are those that see this in more esoteric terms: as a way to psychologically "reshape" the country.
There is a school of thought, in particular from some of the older generation, that life in the EU has somehow made younger Brits "soft". This thinking harks back to the "Dunkirk Spirit" and hardships endured during the Second World War. This accepts that a "no deal" Brexit would be very difficult on the country for a period of time, but this would also act as a motivation to transform for the better the nation in the long-run, by bringing people together in a better sense of community through adversity.
This is really just another angle on the same agenda as the vulture capitalists, but seen from a social, rather than economic, perspective.
This kind of nonsense thinking is dangerous to the debate over Brexit, as it confuses the motivations of those behind it. It makes Brexit seem as a method to socially transform Britain (i.e. social engineering), and that "the ends justify the means". The advocates of this kind of social aspect to Brexit seem to argue that destroying the economy will be good for society in the long run. It's hard to know what to call this line of thought rationally, except for something dangerously-akin to Fascism. It suggests a radical "purge" of society's indolent and inefficient elements, to something more streamlined.
As a reminder of why this could be called "Fascism" by another name, let's think back to the methods and justifications used by authoritarian regimes. The rationalism for many authoritarian regimes' policies was the ultimate idea that it was for the betterment of society. Yes, they said, some people would suffer, but it would work out better for everyone: no pain, no gain. In a different manner, the neo-liberals in the Conservative Party who support Brexit, also see it in esoteric terms: to transform the nation through tumultuous revolution and return to its lost roots. It will be hard on their countrymen, but they have their best interests at heart! This logic they gained from Ayn Rand and her praise of the "Social Darwinism" of the pure free market. The methods they are using to reach their goal, however, are ultimately anti-democratic: it is the subversion of the democratic process to achieve their own radical vision of society. This manipulation of the institutions of government is what makes them akin to authoritarians; their use of esoteric language in describing their aims is what makes their rhetoric so worryingly-similar to Fascism.
In the present day, no-one in politics uses the word "Fascism" to describe what they are doing, for obvious reasons; this is why the use of euphemisms and esoteric language come in to play instead. But the end result may well be the same.
This is the "descent to madness" that we are seeing at the highest levels of government. Rationalism has been replaced by esoteric thinking. When people in government can say "we've had enough with experts" the only logical destination to this is government ran on emotions and prejudice rather than judgement and facts. This is the real descent to madness.
So let's have a reminder of what the situation truly is, and what would happen automatically if Britain has a "no deal" situation with the EU by 30 March 2019.
Into a hurricane without as much as an umbrella?
As mentioned in the highlighted article, Britain has been a part of the EU for forty-odd years, and in that time, almost every aspect of the British economy (and life in general) has become intertwined with the EU. In this respect, Eurosceptics' original complaint that Britain has over this time lost its sovereignty hold some water, at least at a technical level: one of the key principles is about transfers of powers. But the trade-off in "losing sovereignty" is the vast opportunities gained for wealth creation across the open borders.
The EU is a single market, but can also be called a "single economy", given how inter-connected the methods are. Companies across Europe rely on its seamless nature: products sold across the EU are made of constituents across various countries, for example. The same is true of British companies, whose companies sell products made of ingredients purchased across the various open borders. To have a "Hard Brexit" means to sever contact with that "single economy".
Leaving the EU means to null and void not only Britain's frictionless border with the EU, but also reverting to WTO conditions would automatically apply large tariffs on a whole slew of products sold to and bought from the EU. To not do this under WTO terms would result in legal consequences for Britain, making it effectively a trade law pariah to the rest of the world. These tariffs would result in large cost increases to all British companies that trade with the EU, meaning either much higher prices or these companies soon going bust. Due to the differing tariffs, some sectors would be hit much harder (and thus much more quickly) than others. And apart from that, there are the checks that the EU would automatically impose on all such products entering the EU from Britain as a "third country". This is where the talk of huge lorry parks in Dover and miles of tailbacks of trucks in Kent comes from, as all transit from outside the EU must be checked as standard, adding time and an administrative headache to the process of entering the EU, which is currently minimal. Again, these are further costs that would have to be factored in by British companies. Put in this way, it's easy to make the case that the British economy could quickly cease to function in the sense we understand today.
Apart from all this, talk of easily setting up trade with the rest of the world is also pie-in-the-sky thinking. Again, as Britain's relations with Europe are intertwined with the EU, so are many of Britain's foreign trade agreements across the world. Many of our foreign trade treaties are courtesy of our place in the EU trading bloc. Once we leave that, we also would revert to WTO rules with all those other nations in the world that had treaties with the EU (i.e. all the important ones).
There is also the problem of the "intellectual shortage" on trade. A recent story of when Liam Fox went to discuss trade with the USA highlighted how the trade negotiators that went with him had little real experience of trade negotiations. As these had all been done as part of the EU, Britain's people took a back seat, with little of a hands-on role. Again, this is due to Britain's role as part of the EU. As we had no need for a large number of trade negotiators when in the EU, it means we have very few now. So this means the government are looking to start trade talks with all the major economies in the world, with few properly-qualified trade negotiators of their own. This is like going to war without even checking that you have a functional army. This is just one example of many demonstrating how unprepared government is for the reality of a "no deal" Brexit, due to not appreciating how much British life has become reliant on our position within the EU.
The basic point is that, if we leave the EU without a deal, many of the treaties and agreements that Britain has signed with the EU and much of the rest of the world over the last forty-odd years will simply no longer apply to Britain. On a "no deal" Brexit, Britain, from a legalistic point of view, would have unilaterally decided to null and void its part in those agreements. Without anything else in their place, Britain would be starting from scratch its relations with not only the EU, but with much of the world. While it's possible that some of these could be restarted quickly, others might take much longer. And Britain doesn't even have that many qualified negotiators.
"The ends justify the means"
Apart from those who see this all as a prime opportunity to make money, there are those that see this in more esoteric terms: as a way to psychologically "reshape" the country.
There is a school of thought, in particular from some of the older generation, that life in the EU has somehow made younger Brits "soft". This thinking harks back to the "Dunkirk Spirit" and hardships endured during the Second World War. This accepts that a "no deal" Brexit would be very difficult on the country for a period of time, but this would also act as a motivation to transform for the better the nation in the long-run, by bringing people together in a better sense of community through adversity.
This is really just another angle on the same agenda as the vulture capitalists, but seen from a social, rather than economic, perspective.
This kind of nonsense thinking is dangerous to the debate over Brexit, as it confuses the motivations of those behind it. It makes Brexit seem as a method to socially transform Britain (i.e. social engineering), and that "the ends justify the means". The advocates of this kind of social aspect to Brexit seem to argue that destroying the economy will be good for society in the long run. It's hard to know what to call this line of thought rationally, except for something dangerously-akin to Fascism. It suggests a radical "purge" of society's indolent and inefficient elements, to something more streamlined.
As a reminder of why this could be called "Fascism" by another name, let's think back to the methods and justifications used by authoritarian regimes. The rationalism for many authoritarian regimes' policies was the ultimate idea that it was for the betterment of society. Yes, they said, some people would suffer, but it would work out better for everyone: no pain, no gain. In a different manner, the neo-liberals in the Conservative Party who support Brexit, also see it in esoteric terms: to transform the nation through tumultuous revolution and return to its lost roots. It will be hard on their countrymen, but they have their best interests at heart! This logic they gained from Ayn Rand and her praise of the "Social Darwinism" of the pure free market. The methods they are using to reach their goal, however, are ultimately anti-democratic: it is the subversion of the democratic process to achieve their own radical vision of society. This manipulation of the institutions of government is what makes them akin to authoritarians; their use of esoteric language in describing their aims is what makes their rhetoric so worryingly-similar to Fascism.
In the present day, no-one in politics uses the word "Fascism" to describe what they are doing, for obvious reasons; this is why the use of euphemisms and esoteric language come in to play instead. But the end result may well be the same.
This is the "descent to madness" that we are seeing at the highest levels of government. Rationalism has been replaced by esoteric thinking. When people in government can say "we've had enough with experts" the only logical destination to this is government ran on emotions and prejudice rather than judgement and facts. This is the real descent to madness.
Thursday, October 12, 2017
Brexit: The "Disaster Capitalism" Theory
People inclined towards conspiracy theories seem to have more and more evidence each week that the Brexit negotiations appear to heading to an ultimate breakdown and a "Hard Brexit", with the primary beneficiaries of this situation being vulture capitalists. However, the term "vulture capitalists" would be misleading here, as conventional "vulture capitalism" is about making money from an unforeseeable traumatic event, such as the sudden collapse of an economy; when the "traumatic event" (e.g. "Hard Brexit") is helped along by the actions of the "vulture capitalists" themselves, it becomes something far darker - deliberate chaos.
"The name's Barnier, Michel Barnier..."
In this narrative, "Brexit" would more closely resemble the nefarious plot of a James Bond film: where a shadowy group of powerful interests plot to destroy Britain's economy in order to become rich from its carcass (anyone familiar with the recent Bond films might see an eerie parallel in the premise behind "Quantum Of Solace", for example). Taking this narrative further, these same "powerful interests" would be conspiring with others - "useful idiots" - who would act as unwitting accomplices and enablers to bring about the desired outcome. People in the West who are apologists for people like Vladimir Putin, for example, are certainly acting as "useful idiots" in trying to excuse Russia's self-interested actions (such as over Crimea and Ukraine). Similarly, those who try to make moralizing excuses for "The Brexit Agenda" are simply embarrassing their own reputations. These people are simply deluding themselves into thinking that brazenly amoral, opportunistic actions are somehow something more benign.
Continuing the earlier James Bond theme, as a fan of Bond films in general, it's interesting to consider where people like Fleming and other writers drew their inspiration. While the quality of the films is highly-variable, some of the most engaging plots are those that are believable (or fool you into thinking they are). All art is based, in part, on real life, and the James Bond series is no exception.
For instance, it's impossible not to watch some of the films and be shocked at the sociopathic cunning behind it all: like eponymous Auric Goldfinger and his plan to get rich by irradiating the USA's gold supply at Fort Knox; Max Zorin's utterly amoral plot (in "View To A Kill") to gain a monopoly on the silicon chip market by causing an earthquake that would destroy Silicon Valley; Renard's plan in "The World is Not Enough" to cause a spike in the oil price by targeting Istanbul; Le Chiffre's plan in "Casino Royale" to blow up a plane to make money on the stock market seems tame by comparison to earlier plot lines, but this made it seem all the more believable in the unpredictability of a post 9/11 world. These plots and these "evil masterminds" are all deliberate exaggerations of anything possible in real life, but what makes it all so watchable is how easy it makes it to suspend disbelief. That being said, 9/11 proved to all of us that a seemingly unthinkable nightmare only remains so until someone crazy enough actually thinks about doing it. Going back to Russia, the idea of Crimea being "taken back" by Moscow also seemed an idea for the fruitcakes, until it actually happened. Ditto with Brexit. Like conspiracy theorists, it's easy to suspend disbelief when reality itself seems so unbelievable.
The author doesn't share the dark, paranoiac vision of the conspiracy theorists on Brexit: this isn't some kind of James Bond plot line come to life. The UK government hasn't been infiltrated by agents of the Kremlin; Michel Barnier isn't a "secret agent" out to sabotage Britain's future outside the EU. However, there is always a chink of the light of truth in some aspects of any conspiracy theory: the idea has to come from somewhere, after all.
When the vultures circle
The premise of "disaster capitalism" was thought up by Naomi Klein. On the Brexit negotiations, there is now a mood in the government that leaving the EU at the end of March 2019 with no deal is actually a goer. In other words, to leave the EU without any agreements in place would be fine, as they think any disruption to the economy would be considered minor, or at the very worst, worth it in the long-run.
Setting aside the suspension of disbelief needed to take this view seriously, it's worth looking at where there are comparable examples in modern times of such a situation. What is being seriously considered in government is an effective "reset" of the British economy to before it joined the EEC and EFTA, more than fifty years ago, and for this to occur overnight on 30 March 2019. The government are saying they are willing to completely change the rules and framework that has guided the British economy, from one system to another, without a transition. This is what "Hard Brexit" means.
It's hard to find an exact comparison to this situation; the closest we can get is finding when another large, developed nation changed the structure of its economy overnight. One modern example that comes to mind is Russia.
Naomi Klein cited the example of Russia's post-Communist economy when talking about "disaster capitalism". Russia's economy had been Communist for seventy years. It changed to an unregulated free market economy overnight. What this meant in reality was that a small number of individuals ("oligarchs") took advantage of the chaotic situation and its lack of enforceable "rules" to buy control of sectors of the economy. Corruption became the way to do business; meanwhile, the day-to-day economy tanked. It took ten years and a currency crisis for the country to get back on its feet. The end result, when things recovered, was that corruption became a way of life and the country's tentative attempt at democracy ending in the quasi-authoritarian rule of Vladimir Putin. This regime was then supported through the politics of nationalism.
This is one example of what happens when "disaster capitalism" takes control of the economy. It is the economic equivalent of "shock therapy". Other nations have also been guided to a similar course; after an economic crisis, the IMF's solution has been the same kind of "shock therapy" that results in years of turbulence. And this moment, when the economy is so vulnerable, is when the "vultures" descend.
It is in this kind of "turbulence" that the vultures see opportunities for rich pickings. The UK leaving the EU without any kind of transition and without any agreements is the same kind of environment that would attract these vultures. While the government is in denial about the turbulence that would be created as a result of a "Hard Brexit", those that see rich pickings in this environment would only encourage it.
"Hard Brexit" Britain would not be Post-Communist Russia, of course, but because the British economy and its intellectual manpower has become so enmeshed with the EU over the last forty-odd years, it simply has no means to easily adapt without it. Short-term chaos, at the very least, is inevitable without long-term planning: this would be Britain's version of "shock therapy". The question of the extent and duration of the chaos depends on the government. The fact that the government are a large part in denial about it simply makes the chaos more likely.
In this sense, the "disaster capitalists" are also agents of chaos, which makes the idea of there being some kind of nefarious plot so easy for conspiracy theorists to believe. The reality is more complicated. Brexit was once only an obsession of a few marginal figures, that had the implicit support of some elements of the media. It was a confluence of different factors - the same factors that saw the rise of UKIP - that got us where we are today. The same is true of the government's lurch towards "Hard Brexit": while this may be supported by a small number in government for their own ideological (or amoral) reasons, the government as a whole - and Theresa May in particular - seem to be sliding towards it almost by accident. As mentioned elsewhere, the government seems intent on a "wrecking ball" strategy in the negotiations. Whether this is a deliberate ploy to attain a "Hard Brexit" (given they think it will have little negative effect on Britain's economy), or simply a bone-headed negotiating tactic (as a facile attempt at "brinksmanship" for the EU to grant concessions) is irrelevant, as the end result will be the same: chaos of some description to Britain's economy.
So Britain's "Hard Brexit" may not be the result of any conspiracy at all, but more likely because of the sheer incompetence and stupidity that guides those in government; and these frightening levels of incompetence make Britain's future all the more uncertain. It is also this incompetence at the heart of government that makes Britain a ripe target for the vultures; like sharks, they smell blood. Like hyenas, they can smell the rotten state of affairs.
"The name's Barnier, Michel Barnier..."
In this narrative, "Brexit" would more closely resemble the nefarious plot of a James Bond film: where a shadowy group of powerful interests plot to destroy Britain's economy in order to become rich from its carcass (anyone familiar with the recent Bond films might see an eerie parallel in the premise behind "Quantum Of Solace", for example). Taking this narrative further, these same "powerful interests" would be conspiring with others - "useful idiots" - who would act as unwitting accomplices and enablers to bring about the desired outcome. People in the West who are apologists for people like Vladimir Putin, for example, are certainly acting as "useful idiots" in trying to excuse Russia's self-interested actions (such as over Crimea and Ukraine). Similarly, those who try to make moralizing excuses for "The Brexit Agenda" are simply embarrassing their own reputations. These people are simply deluding themselves into thinking that brazenly amoral, opportunistic actions are somehow something more benign.
Continuing the earlier James Bond theme, as a fan of Bond films in general, it's interesting to consider where people like Fleming and other writers drew their inspiration. While the quality of the films is highly-variable, some of the most engaging plots are those that are believable (or fool you into thinking they are). All art is based, in part, on real life, and the James Bond series is no exception.
For instance, it's impossible not to watch some of the films and be shocked at the sociopathic cunning behind it all: like eponymous Auric Goldfinger and his plan to get rich by irradiating the USA's gold supply at Fort Knox; Max Zorin's utterly amoral plot (in "View To A Kill") to gain a monopoly on the silicon chip market by causing an earthquake that would destroy Silicon Valley; Renard's plan in "The World is Not Enough" to cause a spike in the oil price by targeting Istanbul; Le Chiffre's plan in "Casino Royale" to blow up a plane to make money on the stock market seems tame by comparison to earlier plot lines, but this made it seem all the more believable in the unpredictability of a post 9/11 world. These plots and these "evil masterminds" are all deliberate exaggerations of anything possible in real life, but what makes it all so watchable is how easy it makes it to suspend disbelief. That being said, 9/11 proved to all of us that a seemingly unthinkable nightmare only remains so until someone crazy enough actually thinks about doing it. Going back to Russia, the idea of Crimea being "taken back" by Moscow also seemed an idea for the fruitcakes, until it actually happened. Ditto with Brexit. Like conspiracy theorists, it's easy to suspend disbelief when reality itself seems so unbelievable.
The author doesn't share the dark, paranoiac vision of the conspiracy theorists on Brexit: this isn't some kind of James Bond plot line come to life. The UK government hasn't been infiltrated by agents of the Kremlin; Michel Barnier isn't a "secret agent" out to sabotage Britain's future outside the EU. However, there is always a chink of the light of truth in some aspects of any conspiracy theory: the idea has to come from somewhere, after all.
When the vultures circle
The premise of "disaster capitalism" was thought up by Naomi Klein. On the Brexit negotiations, there is now a mood in the government that leaving the EU at the end of March 2019 with no deal is actually a goer. In other words, to leave the EU without any agreements in place would be fine, as they think any disruption to the economy would be considered minor, or at the very worst, worth it in the long-run.
Setting aside the suspension of disbelief needed to take this view seriously, it's worth looking at where there are comparable examples in modern times of such a situation. What is being seriously considered in government is an effective "reset" of the British economy to before it joined the EEC and EFTA, more than fifty years ago, and for this to occur overnight on 30 March 2019. The government are saying they are willing to completely change the rules and framework that has guided the British economy, from one system to another, without a transition. This is what "Hard Brexit" means.
It's hard to find an exact comparison to this situation; the closest we can get is finding when another large, developed nation changed the structure of its economy overnight. One modern example that comes to mind is Russia.
Naomi Klein cited the example of Russia's post-Communist economy when talking about "disaster capitalism". Russia's economy had been Communist for seventy years. It changed to an unregulated free market economy overnight. What this meant in reality was that a small number of individuals ("oligarchs") took advantage of the chaotic situation and its lack of enforceable "rules" to buy control of sectors of the economy. Corruption became the way to do business; meanwhile, the day-to-day economy tanked. It took ten years and a currency crisis for the country to get back on its feet. The end result, when things recovered, was that corruption became a way of life and the country's tentative attempt at democracy ending in the quasi-authoritarian rule of Vladimir Putin. This regime was then supported through the politics of nationalism.
This is one example of what happens when "disaster capitalism" takes control of the economy. It is the economic equivalent of "shock therapy". Other nations have also been guided to a similar course; after an economic crisis, the IMF's solution has been the same kind of "shock therapy" that results in years of turbulence. And this moment, when the economy is so vulnerable, is when the "vultures" descend.
It is in this kind of "turbulence" that the vultures see opportunities for rich pickings. The UK leaving the EU without any kind of transition and without any agreements is the same kind of environment that would attract these vultures. While the government is in denial about the turbulence that would be created as a result of a "Hard Brexit", those that see rich pickings in this environment would only encourage it.
"Hard Brexit" Britain would not be Post-Communist Russia, of course, but because the British economy and its intellectual manpower has become so enmeshed with the EU over the last forty-odd years, it simply has no means to easily adapt without it. Short-term chaos, at the very least, is inevitable without long-term planning: this would be Britain's version of "shock therapy". The question of the extent and duration of the chaos depends on the government. The fact that the government are a large part in denial about it simply makes the chaos more likely.
In this sense, the "disaster capitalists" are also agents of chaos, which makes the idea of there being some kind of nefarious plot so easy for conspiracy theorists to believe. The reality is more complicated. Brexit was once only an obsession of a few marginal figures, that had the implicit support of some elements of the media. It was a confluence of different factors - the same factors that saw the rise of UKIP - that got us where we are today. The same is true of the government's lurch towards "Hard Brexit": while this may be supported by a small number in government for their own ideological (or amoral) reasons, the government as a whole - and Theresa May in particular - seem to be sliding towards it almost by accident. As mentioned elsewhere, the government seems intent on a "wrecking ball" strategy in the negotiations. Whether this is a deliberate ploy to attain a "Hard Brexit" (given they think it will have little negative effect on Britain's economy), or simply a bone-headed negotiating tactic (as a facile attempt at "brinksmanship" for the EU to grant concessions) is irrelevant, as the end result will be the same: chaos of some description to Britain's economy.
So Britain's "Hard Brexit" may not be the result of any conspiracy at all, but more likely because of the sheer incompetence and stupidity that guides those in government; and these frightening levels of incompetence make Britain's future all the more uncertain. It is also this incompetence at the heart of government that makes Britain a ripe target for the vultures; like sharks, they smell blood. Like hyenas, they can smell the rotten state of affairs.
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